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Report: Pennsylvania Catholics will decide Trump vs. Biden

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Pennsylvania Catholic Tribune News Service Oct 9, 2020

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Catholic voters will decide the November election.

The road to the U.S. presidency in 2020 runs through Catholic parishes in Pennsylvania.

A Pennsylvania Catholic Tribune analysis says Catholics were decisive in Trump’s victory, comprising an estimated 31.5 percent of Pennsylvania’s electorate in 2016, or about 1.926 million of the 6.115 million Pennsylvania ballots cast for president.

Catholic voters turned out at a higher rate than the average voter. Only 24 percent of Pennsylvania’s population is Catholic, according to state archdiocese estimates. The state has 3.5 million Catholics and 12.8 million people.

Trump won 2,970,733 votes to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 2,926,441, a margin of 44,292, or 0.72 percent.

Pennsylvania’s most Catholic counties came out stronger for Trump in 2016 than they had for 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. The 20 counties with the highest percentage of Catholic voters delivered 109,446 more votes for Trump than Romney, the Pennsylvania Catholic Tribune analysis found.

Pennsylvania is home to 1,365 parishes across eight dioceses--Erie, Philadelphia, Altoona-Johnstown, Scranton, Pittsburgh, Greensburg, Harrisburg and Allentown

The Pennsylvania Catholic Tribune analysis found Trump significantly outperformed 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney in seven of the eight dioceses, including Allentown (+49,279), Altoona-Johnstown (+36,792), Scranton (+62,535), Erie (+70,587), Greensburg (+41,025), Harrisburg (+75,936) and Pittsburgh (+22,889).

Both 2020 campaigns are taking Pennsylvania Catholics seriously.

“Catholics for Trump” officially launched in May; it had planned a kick-off event in Milwaukee that was cancelled due to the corona virus.

Democratic political analyst and former Barack Obama faith outreach director Michael Wear said Catholic voters will determine the fate of party nominee Joe Biden.

“Catholics are the make-or-break demographic in this next election,” he said. “That was obvious across the Midwest in the last (presidential) campaign. There is no reason not to be asking questions about what Catholic voters are thinking at this point in the game.”

“Ultimate swing voters”

Catholics have a long history of picking presidential winners.

In 2012, Reuters/Ipsos exit polling found President Barack Obama won 51 percent of the Catholic vote, to GOP contender Mitt Romney’s 48 percent.

A Pew Research poll in 2008 found Obama won 54 percent of Catholics to John McCain’s 45 percent.

Pew found that Catholics supported Democrat Al Gore over Republican George W. Bush in 2000 (50-47). But they swung to Bush in 2004, giving the incumbent 52 percent of their votes to 47 percent for challenger John Kerry.

According to exit polls, after backing Republican George H.W. Bush in his 1988 win over Democrat Michael Dukakis, 52-47, Catholics supported Democrat Bill Clinton twice.

Clinton won the Catholic vote 44-36 over the incumbent Bush in 1992 and 53-37 over challenger Republican Bob Dole in 1996.

Catholics also backed Republican Ronald Reagan twice-- 49-42 over incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 and 54-45 over Democrat challenger Walter Mondale in 1984.

In 1976, Catholics backed Democrat Jimmy Carter, 54-44. 

In 1972, they supported Republican Richard Nixon, 54-44.

Pennsylvania’s Catholic Vote, 2012 vs 2016

Catholic voters put Donald Trump over the top in Pennsylvania in 2016. Which counties made the difference?

CountyDiocesePCTIPop.Trump improvement
Schuylkill CountyAllentown91.62142,06719,499
Carbon CountyAllentown76.9664,2277,883
Northampton CountyAllentown53.42304,80711,624
Berks CountyAllentown39.77420,15216,498
Lehigh CountyAllentown30.16368,1003,775
Cambria CountyAltoona-Johnstown125.10131,73012,477
Somerset CountyAltoona-Johnstown66.1673,9525,455
Blair CountyAltoona-Johnstown65.88122,4928,134
Bedford CountyAltoona-Johnstown41.4848,1763,993
Fulton CountyAltoona-Johnstown41.4314,5231,278
Clinton CountyAltoona-Johnstown36.3438,6843,709
Huntingdon CountyAltoona-Johnstown33.6145,1683,385
Centre CountyAltoona-Johnstown12.30162,805-1,639
Elk CountyErie159.3030,1694,056
Cameron CountyErie115.394,492423
Clarion CountyErie85.5538,7792,531
Jefferson CountyErie84.6743,6413,281
Erie CountyErie82.13272,06120,968
Clearfield CountyErie76.1479,3887,506
Warren CountyErie63.0839,4984,317
Potter CountyErie62.0716,6221,615
McKean CountyErie61.0940,9683,362
Mercer CountyErie58.22110,68311,118
Venango CountyErie45.9751,2663,842
Crawford CountyErie41.9185,0636,998
Forest CountyErie41.527,279570
Westmoreland CountyGreensburg84.56350,61116,643
Armstrong CountyGreensburg62.1165,2635,209
Indiana CountyGreensburg55.5384,5016,576
Fayette CountyGreensburg53.28130,44112,597
Adams CountyHarrisburg51.65102,8115,528
Northumberland CountyHarrisburg48.4691,0839,193
Montour CountyHarrisburg45.6318,240832
Perry CountyHarrisburg41.1646,1393,549
Cumberland CountyHarrisburg40.50251,4231,549
Franklin CountyHarrisburg34.07154,8358,038
Lebanon CountyHarrisburg33.00141,3145,600
Dauphin CountyHarrisburg31.47277,0973,672
Mifflin CountyHarrisburg31.1046,2222,551
Snyder CountyHarrisburg30.2940,5402,337
Lancaster CountyHarrisburg26.52543,5574,633
Juniata CountyHarrisburg26.4624,7042,137
Columbia CountyHarrisburg26.1065,4565,771
Union CountyHarrisburg14.3944,785655
York CountyHarrisburg12.82448,27319,891
Bucks CountyPhiladelphia103.08628,1951,243
Delaware CountyPhiladelphia83.72564,751-5,796
Chester CountyPhiladelphia76.11522,046-26,097
Montgomery CountyPhiladelphia37.13828,604-34,376
Philadelphia CountyPhiladelphia-45.101,584,14017,062
Beaver CountyPittsburgh78.46164,74210,347
Butler CountyPittsburgh74.74187,8884,633
Allegheny CountyPittsburgh73.721,218,450-17,489
Washington CountyPittsburgh73.04207,34612,179
Lawrence CountyPittsburgh69.2086,1847,885
Greene CountyPittsburgh51.6336,5063,791
Luzerne CountyScranton132.44317,64632,219
Lackawanna CountyScranton88.35210,79323,154
Wayne CountyScranton74.8651,2764,736
Lycoming CountyScranton73.24113,6647,152
Wyoming CountyScranton61.4827,0463,500
Pike CountyScranton58.9855,9334,224
Sullivan CountyScranton56.956,071707
Monroe CountyScranton45.22169,5077,822
Susquehanna CountyScranton41.7340,5893,903
Bradford CountyScranton37.9460,8335,986
Tioga CountyScranton35.4140,7633,728
TOTALS

12,807,060354,132

Sources: Pennsylvania Bureau of Commissions, Elections and Legislation; U.S. Census, Association of Religion Data Archives

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